Autopsy: the 3 November 2026 general election against the forecast

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The race for governor

The legislature

Every office against its published forecast

officeresult: Democratresult: Republicanresult marginpublished: Democratpublished margin and rangethe Democrat against the forecastinside the range?ticket lag: the Republican against the governorthe same gap in 2022 / 2018

The maps: every race, the split fill, the best Democrat, the county pies and turnout by party

Map
RaceShow View by Values by

By county

unitDemocrat 2026Republican 2026margin 2026margin 2022swing from 2022margin 2018swing from 2018forecast: Democratagainst the forecastvotes 2026votes v 2022turnout 2026

Every contested legislative seat, and the U.S. House, against the top of the ticket

seatwinnerwinner's shareDemocrat's shareseat margingovernor vote in the seat: Democrat / Republicanthe seat against the governor linegovernor forecast in the seat: Democrat / Republicanheld byflip?

Where Munson carried the seat, and how the Democrat did there

seatwhat happenedMunson’s vote in the seatseat resultthe Republican against the governor lineheld bysitting member on the ballot?raised: Democratraised: Republican

Could a stitched coalition win? Every precinct at its best Democratic year

the voteDemocrat, two-candidateDemocratic votesRepublican votesshort by

Drummond’s precincts and Mazzei’s

Cut
precincts by Drummond’s runoff shareprecinctsrunoff votesDrummondMunson 2026Hofmeister 2022Edmondson 2018swing from 2022swing from 2018Republican votes v 2022Democratic votes v 2022college share

By region: the swing, the forecast and the coalition

The swing from 2022, region by region

Level
regionprecinctsvotes 2026Munson 2026Hofmeister 2022Edmondson 2018swing from 2022swing from 2018Republican votes v 2022Democratic votes v 2022Drummond’s runoff shareagainst the forecastbest Democratic yearcoalition lift

How the ballots were cast

how the ballot was castballots 2026 (share of all)ballots 2022 (share of all)Democrat 2026Republican 2026Democrat 2022Republican 2022margin 2026margin 2022change

Where the precinct map was right and where it was off

forecast band: Democrat's share of all votesprecinctsvotesaverage missdirection

Who voted, by party of registration

party of registrationvoted 2026share 2026voted 2022, same countiesshare 2022voted 2018, same countiesshare 20182026 against 2022

How each party’s voters cast their ballot, 2026

how the ballot was castballotsshare of allDemocratsRepublicansindependentsLibertarians

The counties that have posted

countycreditsof the ballot floorcomplete?Democrats 2026Democrats 2022Republicans 2026Republicans 2022independents 2026independents 2022Democratic share 2026Democratic share 2022

Turnout, and where the swing came from

By how the precinct voted in 2022

Democrat’s share of all votes, 2022precinctsshare of 2026 ballotsballots v 2022ballots v 2018Democrat 2026Republican 2026margin 2026swing from 2022swing from 2018

By the makeup of the precinct

precinctsprecinctsshare of 2026 ballotsballots v 2022ballots v 2018Democrat 2026Republican 2026margin 2026swing from 2022swing from 2018

Two lenses at once

rowcolumnprecinctsballots v 2022ballots v 2018Democrat 2026Republican 2026margin 2026swing from 2022swing from 2018

The lenses together: what holds when the rest are held constant

measure of the precinctperswing from 2022, the rest held constantswing, this lens aloneballots v 2022, the rest held constantballots, this lens alone

What the next model changes

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